Nevin Shetty has been covered by CEO Official Magazine for his analysis of how second chance hiring is performing across American industry. The Seattle-based financial executive and author of Second Chance Economics has collected data from companies that adopted inclusive hiring practices and tracked results with the same rigor they would apply to any other business initiative.
The outcomes vary by sector, but the direction is consistent. In industry after industry, the companies that gave people with records a genuine opportunity found that the decision held up under measurement.
Manufacturing and Warehousing: Where the Need Is Most Urgent
The National Association of Manufacturers estimates that roughly half a million positions sit unfilled at any given time. Warehousing and logistics face comparable gaps, pushed wider by e-commerce growth that keeps outpacing available labor.
These industries were early adopters of second chance hiring, partly because they had no choice. What they discovered was that retention rates among second chance hires matched or exceeded facility averages. Absenteeism was comparable. The cost savings from filling positions quickly, rather than leaving them empty for weeks while overtime expenses piled up, were substantial.
Shetty, who managed turnarounds for distressed companies at SierraConstellation Partners and understands operational economics from the inside, points out something most HR teams miss: an unfilled position is not free. It means mandatory overtime for existing staff, slower output, missed deadlines, and eventually the departure of burned-out workers who were covering the gap. That cascade of costs often dwarfs whatever risk employers associate with a nontraditional hire.
Food Service and Hospitality: The Quiet Pioneers
The restaurant and hospitality sector has been doing second chance hiring longer than almost any other industry, often without putting a name on it. Dave’s Hot Chicken, Greyston Bakery, and hundreds of independent restaurants across the country have built their workforce strategies around giving people an opportunity regardless of background.
Greyston Bakery in New York is the most studied example. Their open-hiring model, which accepts anyone who walks in the door regardless of history, has sustained a profitable business for decades. The bakery has been the subject of academic research and corporate case studies, and the results consistently show that when second chance hiring is paired with structure, training, and clear expectations, it works. When it is treated as a last resort with no support, it fails. The variable is not the employee’s background. It is the employer’s preparation.
Financial Services: The Surprise Entry
This is the one that catches people off guard. JPMorgan Chase, one of the largest and most risk-conscious financial institutions in the world, publicly committed to second chance hiring and has reported results that support expanding the program. The bank’s decision was driven partly by internal analysis showing that criminal records are poor predictors of job performance, and partly by the mathematical reality that excluding a third of American adults from your talent pipeline is an artificial constraint that no competitive business should accept voluntarily.
Shetty, who spent the early part of his career in hedge fund management and raised more than 300 million from institutional investors over his career, observes that if the most heavily regulated industry in America can make this work, the objections from less regulated sectors become difficult to defend.
What the Pattern Tells Us
The companies succeeding with second chance hiring across all three sectors share three practices. They evaluate candidates individually rather than by category. They invest in structured onboarding and support. And they measure results with data rather than managing by assumption.
These are, not coincidentally, the same principles that define restorative justice: accountability, support, and evidence-based decision-making. The companies practicing them are not doing charity work. They are solving a business problem with a solution that happens to align with what the research says works for reducing recidivism and strengthening communities.
The Work Opportunity Tax Credit and ban-the-box policies in 37 states have made the mechanics easier. But the real driver is simpler than policy: companies tried it, tracked the numbers, and found that it worked.
